It still seems highly unlikely Segregated Witness will activate on the bitcoin network. Most people think the deadline for activation is November 15th, yet that is not entirely true. In fact, it will still be possible to activate it after that date, thanks to a technical requirement in BIP 9. Assuming there is still interest in SegWit at that point, things may turn out okay eventually.
To be more specific, the technical requirements give some leeway when it comes to SegWit activation. The BIP 9 bit allocations are required to have a timeout to prevent the bit from burning if the proposal is abandoned. While it is possible something better than SegWit may come up before November 15th, one never knows what the future holds. It is important to note that date is not a SegWit proposal timeout, but rather the bit assignment date.
SegWit Will Not Go Away Anytime Soon
Then again, the question becomes whether or not anyone will still have an interest in SegWit by then. Considering how the miner sentiment is not in favor of this proposal, its chance of activation seems relatively low. It is doubtful much will change between now and November 15th. A better “solution” would be to lower the activation threshold. Reaching 95% consensus is virtually impossible to achieve the way things are going right now.
On Reddit, one user proposes how Bitcoin Core developers need to provide additional options. Relying on SegWit only activating at 95% support is not a feasible solution. In fact, it never was achievable in the first place. Something that could activate at 51% network support seems more feasible as of right now. Whether or not that will be SegWit or something else entirely, remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: none of the current bitcoin scaling solutions will reach their activation threshold at this rate. SegWit is too far behind the curve right now. Bitcoin Unlimited is not the most favorable solution either. Extension Blocks are a potential candidate, but support seems absent. The user-activated soft fork has perhaps the best chance of succeeding. Only time will tell what the future holds for bitcoin, but for now, things remain unchanged.
In the end, it is good to know SegWit will have a fighting chance after November 15th. Whether or not hat will even matter, is anybody’s guess as of right now. Having the option still available can prove to be quite beneficial in the end, though. A solution that can only activate based on how miners feel remains a topic of substantial debate for now. After all, miners represent a fraction of the bitcoin community as a whole.
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